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{"sheet":"Итог","index":0,"n_rows":14,"n_cols":14,"rows_kept":14,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[8,0,8,13]],"read":"bin_skipped_in_rows","flags":["formulas_cached_only","records_skipped"],"rows_in_doubt":{"n":0,"rows":[]},"rows_in_doubt_other":5}
["Таблица1","янв","фев","мар","апр","май","июн","июл","авг","сен","окт","ноя","дек","Итого"]
["Продажи мороженого, тонн"]
["Объем продаж, 2014 г",4014.2999999999997,4820.87,5693.91,6299.35,6886.98,7221.95,7345.45,7196.6900000000005,6708.17,6033.3099999999995,5168.67,4239.219999999999,71628.87]
["Объем продаж, 2015 г",2994.03,3867.22,5155.8099999999995,6287.42,7218.93,7811.11,8063.6,8020.23,7603.23,6951.73,6111.719999999999,5261.86,75346.88999999998]
["Динамика продаж 2015/2014",-0.2541588819968611,-0.19781699153887167,-0.0945044793472325,-0.001893846190480053,0.0481996462890848,0.08157907490359251,0.09776800604455826,0.11443316302355644,0.13342834185776442,0.15222489810734086,0.18245506097313213,0.24123305702464148,0.05190672420212672]
["Прогноз продаж 2016",4051.0245043698837,4911.392770658656,6005.22383658785,6867.625254743091,7618.915666182521,8074.175233569292,8255.58388455358,8156.212617923905,7695.813173341875,7034.132248688345,6182.968831522559,5261.860000000577,80114.92802214215]
["Динамика продаж 2016/2015",0.35303403919462517,0.2700060432710465,0.16474886324124638,0.09228033990779871,0.05540788817491249,0.03367834194746866,0.023808706353685594,0.016954952404595103,0.01217682134328113,0.01185348807970743,0.011657738169052356,1.0969003483296547e-13,0.06328115230956666]
[]
["Примечания:\n1) Продажи 2014, 2015 - откалиброваннные данные, общий размер рынка мороженого\n2) Под калибровкой данных понимается динамика продаж без учета резкого роста/спада в отдельные периоды (сглаженный тренд) возникшх по причине событийных  факторов: ввод/отмена новых сортов, проведение массовых мероприятий и проч.  \nВ основе калибруемых данных лежит реальная статистика продаж. \nВ качестве допущения предполагается, что именно калиброванные данные определяют фактический спрос на мороженое.\n3) Прогноз продаж расчитан по трендовой модели в 3-х сценариях (оптимистичный, реалистичный и пессимистичный). \nВсе расчеты представленные Заказчику выполнены на основе реалистичного сценария прогноза продаж. \nДля понимания возможных объемов планируемой программы в таблице2 представлены значениия прогноза продаж в 3-х сценариях"]
[]
["Таблица2: Сценарии роста продаж в 2016г"]
[null,"Оптимист","Реалист","Пессим"]
["Продажи мороженого, тонн",86172.87838654086,80114.92802214215,74835.31107352715]
["Прирост 16/15, %",0.14368195404668826,0.06328115230956666,-0.0067896488690221135]

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[null,"Продажи мороженого, тонн"]
["Период","Производитель №1 и №2","Производитель1","Откалиброванный тренд","Прирост, %"]
["2014-01-01",4014.2999999999997,2956,4014.2999999999997]
["2014-02-01",4820.87,3224,4820.87]
["2014-03-01",5393.91,3310,5693.91]
["2014-04-01",5999.35,4018,6299.35]
["2014-05-01",6586.98,4359,6886.98]
["2014-06-01",7171.95,5782,7221.95]
["2014-07-01",6445.45,5420,7345.45]
["2014-08-01",6196.6900000000005,5274,7196.6900000000005]
["2014-09-01",5108.17,3469,6708.17]
["2014-10-01",4633.3099999999995,2866,6033.3099999999995]
["2014-11-01",4068.67,2509,5168.67]
["2014-12-01",4239.219999999999,2483,4239.219999999999]
["2015-01-01",2994.03,1081,2994.03,-0.2541588819968611]
["2015-02-01",3867.22,1534,3867.22,-0.19781699153887167]
["2015-03-01",3955.81,1802,5155.8099999999995,-0.0945044793472325]
["2015-04-01",4587.42,2471,6287.42,-0.001893846190480053]
["2015-05-01",5918.93,4306,7218.93,0.0481996462890848]
["2015-06-01",7811.11,6935,7811.11,0.08157907490359251]
["2015-07-01",8063.6,6885,8063.6,0.09776800604455826]
["2015-08-01",6920.23,5940,8020.23,0.11443316302355644]
["2015-09-01",7003.23,5959,7603.23,0.13342834185776442]
["2015-10-01",6751.73,5463,6951.73,0.15222489810734086]
["2015-11-01",4911.719999999999,3470,6111.719999999999,0.18245506097313213]
["2015-12-01",5261.86,3428,5261.86,0.24123305702464148]
["2016-01-01",null,null,4051.0245043698837,0.35303403919462517]
["2016-02-01",null,null,4911.392770658656,0.2700060432710465]
["2016-03-01",null,null,6005.22383658785,0.16474886324124638]
["2016-04-01",null,null,6867.625254743091,0.09228033990779871]
["2016-05-01",null,null,7618.915666182521,0.05540788817491249]
["2016-06-01",null,null,8074.175233569292,0.03367834194746866]
["2016-07-01",null,null,8255.58388455358,0.023808706353685594]
["2016-08-01",null,null,8156.212617923905,0.016954952404595103]
["2016-09-01",null,null,7695.813173341875,0.01217682134328113]
["2016-10-01",null,null,7034.132248688345,0.01185348807970743]
["2016-11-01",null,null,6182.968831522559,0.011657738169052356]
["2016-12-01",null,null,5261.860000000577,1.0969003483296547e-13]

{"sheet":"Прогноз","index":2,"n_rows":42,"n_cols":14,"rows_kept":42,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[],"flags":["formulas_cached_only"]}
["Series","Series",null,null,"Exponential Smoothing/State Space - Model obtained by model search (all models)"]
["No. observations",24]
["No. forecasts",12,null,null,"Forecasts & 95% prediction intervals",{"$nulls":4},"Fitted model"]
["Seasonality","Monthly",null,null,"Period","Forecast","Lower","Upper",null,"Period","Error","Fit","Data","MAVG (12)"]
[{"$nulls":4},25,4051.0245043698837,3912.2050378454987,4201.297963955689,null,1,115.56678120925925,3898.7332187907405,4014.2999999999997]
["Data pre-processing",null,null,null,26,4911.392770658656,4723.27341735535,5130.226120595749,null,2,-52.97427428245262,4873.844274282453,4820.87]
["Transform","None",null,null,27,6005.22383658785,5751.191527516217,6293.671273258484,null,3,-222.8620238271598,5916.7720238271595,5693.91]
["Seasonal adjustment","None",null,null,28,6867.625254743091,6552.491268508236,7242.884763163985,null,4,-276.32137229941344,6575.6713722994145,6299.35]
[{"$nulls":4},29,7618.915666182521,7233.355966836256,8056.0250464515075,null,5,-192.83119706746373,7079.811197067464,6886.98]
["Exponential Smoothing",null,null,null,30,8074.175233569292,7632.413098915861,8581.883190321194,null,6,-139.00064968281197,7360.950649682812,7221.95]
["Model","Local level, additive seasonal",null,null,31,8255.58388455358,7759.346353642119,8823.541788527376,null,7,-72.4712274641114,7417.92122746411,7345.45,5969.072499999999]
["Error","Multiplicative",null,null,32,8156.212617923905,7600.648394565267,8780.116758562888,null,8,-56.73810897776179,7253.428108977762,7196.6900000000005,5884.049999999999]
["Growth","None",null,null,33,7695.813173341875,7092.892461564546,8375.022250633212,null,9,-32.80084207524974,6740.9708420752495,6708.17,5804.579166666666]
["Seasonal","Additive",null,null,34,7034.132248688345,6420.622127078326,7745.8898105408025,null,10,-18.744468894987737,6052.054468894988,6033.3099999999995,5759.7375]
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["Summary Statistics",null,null,null,36,5261.860000000577,4613.048113286865,6020.7713861287575,null,12,-1.8487780171639845,4241.068778017164,4239.219999999999,5786.405833333333]
["Log-Likelihood",-151.1618669512367,{"$nulls":7},13,-46.96782356255021,3040.9978235625504,2994.03,5835.5025]
["AIC",306.3237339024734,{"$nulls":7},14,14.246370790778181,3852.9736292092216,3867.22,5895.348333333332]
["RMSE",133.813771619458,{"$nulls":7},15,216.39881563631542,4939.411184363684,5155.8099999999995,5963.976666666666]
["MAPE(%)",1.6575563453796256,{"$nulls":7},16,299.12064649546676,5988.299353504533,6287.42,6038.565]
["Sigma",0.022167096546112635,{"$nulls":7},17,200.24398728913692,7018.686012710863,7218.93,6115.0999999999985]
[{"$nulls":9},18,152.13381401462104,7658.976185985378,7811.11,6193.687499999999]
["Smoothing parameters",{"$nulls":8},19,78.97927668369555,7984.620723316305,8063.6,6278.9075]
["alpha",0.8999999999981365,{"$nulls":7},20,62.22362958852065,7958.006370411479,8020.23,6366.9903753641565]
["gamma",0.10000000000916193,{"$nulls":7},21,48.22160509112944,7555.00839490887,7603.23,6454.004772919045]
[{"$nulls":9},22,11.312138503645931,6940.417861496353,6951.73,6524.789259301365]
["State parameters",{"$nulls":8},23,12.392685739795343,6099.327314260204,6111.719999999999,6573.139697196624]
["Initial level",6529.466025088487,{"$nulls":7},24,79.1653683584649,5182.694631641535,5261.86,6606.471836045166]
[{"$nulls":9},25,null,null,4051.0245043698837,6628.393938842608]
["Initial seasonals",{"$nulls":8},26,null,null,4911.392770658656,6644.3925958887385]
["ss(1)",-2630.7328062977467,{"$nulls":7},27,null,null,6005.22383658785,6655.72448071573]
["ss(2)",-1759.6318538941523,{"$nulls":7},28,null,null,6867.625254743091,6663.439745160888]
["ss(3)",-669.0272574953369,{"$nulls":7},29,null,null,7618.915666182521,6670.30659921825]
["ss(4)",190.44791242094664,{"$nulls":7},30,null,null,8074.175233569292,6676.244001845131]
["ss(5)",943.2769722579536,{"$nulls":7},31,null,null,8255.58388455358,6676.244001845178]
["ss(6)",1397.9645022336597,{"$nulls":7},32,null,null,8156.212617923905]
["ss(7)",1580.0356647292308,{"$nulls":7},33,null,null,7695.813173341875]
["ss(8)",1480.7666509604476,{"$nulls":7},34,null,null,7034.132248688345]
["ss(9)",1019.3736821378149,{"$nulls":7},35,null,null,6182.968831522559]
["ss(10)",359.978066825216,{"$nulls":7},36,null,null,5261.860000000577]
["ss(11)",-491.68245994144064]
["ss(12)",-1420.7690739365926]